by Dismal-Jellyfish

Source: www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/hhincexp-1

The predominant findings from the April 2023 Survey are:

• Median inflation expectations declined by 0.3 percentage point on the one-year-ahead horizon to 4.4%, but increased by 0.1 percentage point on the three- and five-year-ahead horizons to 2.9% and a pair of.6%, respectively. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the seventy fifth and twenty fifth percentile of inflation expectations) declined on the one- and five-year-ahead horizons, and remained unchanged on the three-year-ahead horizon.
• Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased on the three-year-ahead horizon and remained unchanged on the one- and five-year-ahead horizons.
• Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.7 percentage point to 2.5% in April, the very best reading since July of last yr. The rise was more pronounced amongst respondents who live within the Midwest and Northeast Census regions.
• Median year-ahead expected price changes declined by 1.1 percentage points for the associated fee of school education (to 7.8%) and 0.1 percentage point for food (to five.8%). In contrast, median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.5 percentage point for gas (to five.1%) and remained unchanged for the associated fee of medical care (at 9.3%) and rent (at 9.2%).

• Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month at 3.0%. The series has been moving between a narrow range of two.8% to three.0% since September 2021.
• Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate shall be higher one yr from now—increased by 1.1 percentage point to 41.8%, above its 12-month trailing average of 40.2%.
• The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the following 12 months increased by 0.8 percentage point to 12.2%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the following 12 months also increased by 0.3 percentage point to 19.6%.
• The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) dropped from 57.6% in March to 55.2% in April, the bottom reading since September 2021. The decline was driven by respondents with at the least some college education.

• Median expected growth in household income decreased by 0.2 percentage point to three.1%, below the series 12-month trailing average of three.6%.
• Median household spending growth expectations decreased from 5.7% in March to five.2% in April, the bottom reading since September 2021. The decline was driven by respondents with a household income greater than $50k.
• Perceptions of credit access in comparison with a yr ago were mixed in April. Each the share of households reporting it is less complicated and the share reporting it’s harder to acquire credit now than one yr ago declined. Similarly, respondents’ views about future credit availability were mixed. Each the share of respondents expecting harder and the share expecting easier credit conditions a yr from now declined.
• The common perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the following three months declined by 0.3 percentage point to 10.6% in April, below the series 12-month trailing average of 11.4%. The decline was driven by those with not more than a highschool education and most pronounced amongst respondents with a household income below $50k.
• The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%.
• Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 9.8%.
• The mean perceived probability that the typical rate of interest on saving accounts shall be higher in 12 months decreased by 0.9 percentage point to 32.0%, below its 12-month trailing average of 33.7%.
• Perceptions about households’ current financial situations improved in April with fewer respondents reporting being worse off than a yr ago. In contrast, year-ahead expectations deteriorated barely with fewer respondents expecting to be higher off a yr from now.
• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices shall be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.8 percentage point to 35.8%.

• Inflation expectations are still well above the Fed’s goal 2%
• Folks expect 4.4% inflation on a 1-year basis while income growth to be 3.1%
  • Even in folks most optimistic expectations, inflation is eating everyone’s lunch to the tune of 1.3%!

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