Prediction markets had a breakout moment in the course of the presidential election, after they proved to be more accurate than most opinion polls.
So with various cryptocurrencies soaring since Donald Trump won the election, possibly prediction markets can accurately answer the query, “How high will Bitcoin go?”
On the crypto-based Polymarket, where the so-called French whale netted a large post-election windfall, bettors have various options for Bitcoin, which is currently trading at about $91,000.
For a contract on what price Bitcoin will hit in November, the chances are 72% that it would reach $95,000. The worth with the following highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, then $110,000 at 14%.
A separate contract that asks if Bitcoin will probably be above $90,000 on Nov. 22 shows 60% odds, while one more contract asking if Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in November only has a 42% probability.
On the prediction market Kalshi, a contract that asks how high Bitcoin will get before 2026 shows 52% odds for $125,000 or above and 44% odds for $150,000 and above.
If prediction markets aren’t your thing, and you favor a forecast from a more conventional Wall Street analyst, there’s Fundstrat Global Advisors cofounder Tom Lee.
Among the many forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, his stock market call in 2023 turned out to be probably the most accurate.
As for Bitcoin, he said in March that it could hit $150,000 by year-end. While that appears less likely now with only a month and a half left within the yr, Lee told CNBC last week that “six figures” remains to be possible before the top of the yr with more gains in 2025 in 2026.
“I feel now because post-halving, Bitcoin is becoming rather a lot more relevant, and I feel possibly the regulatory overhang is diminishing, there’s loads of upside from here,” he explained.
Bitcoin has already soared 32% up to now in November alone and has greater than doubled this yr. To get to $100,000, it could must climb one other 10%.
But there are signs that the post-election rally is stalling because the stock market notched a losing week. Still, key components of the “Trump trade” are riding high, like Tesla stock, Treasury yields, and the dollar.
Meanwhile, Quinn Thompson, the founding father of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, told Fortune this past week that he’s optimistic Bitcoin will attain the $100,000 milestone soon.
“I feel good that we hit it by year-end,” he said. “Very possible by end of month, but we’ll see.”
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com