Polymarket, the predictions market on Polygon, is drawing global attention. Not only is it amongst probably the most lively dapps without their token, but it’s also closely being monitored by pollsters tracking the continuing presidential campaign in the USA.

Within the hotly contested campaign, the present vp, Kamala Harris, is battling with Donald Trump. The previous president lost to Joe Biden in 2020 but now desires to take over.

Is Polymarket Misleading Punters?

Taking a look at Polymarket, Trump has prolonged his lead over the past few days. Punters place the probability of Donald Trump winning at 61% versus 39% for Harris.

Interestingly, the Presidential Election Winner 2024 market has an overall volume of over $2 billion. As big as this will appear, one analyst thinks Polymarket is misleading people and doesn’t need to reveal the true open interest.

Open interest is the whole variety of outstanding contracts in Polymarket’s quite a few markets. This metric is used as a gauge to measure liquidity and interest.

By the analyst’s estimation, its open interest stands at around $200 million, rising from around $100 million up to now 30 days. Cycling over to DeFiLlama, the portal has a complete value locked (TVL) of just $211 million—and that is what the dapps manage, including all other lively markets.

This figure is way lower than the $2 billion in volume the Presidential Election Winner 2024 posts as of October 18. At over $211 million, the Polymarket TVL is at near all-time highs, rising from lower than $50 million in April. Despite this rapid growth, the prediction market’s liquidity just isn’t as deep as expected.

Transparency Questions Emerge

The analyst who identified this discrepancy is blasting Polymarket developers for fronting volume relatively than open interest, saying it’s unethical. This highlight points to a possible low emphasis on transparency that will, ultimately, make it difficult for users to administer risks when placing bets on Polymarket accurately.

Americans will go to the polls on November 4 and select their next president now that Joe Biden is stepping down. Afterward, the biggest Polymarket market running on Polygon will close down, and rewards can be distributed depending on who wins.

Up to now, a punter, “markitzero” backing Harris to win has over 4.5million shares and is in red. Meanwhile, a Trump supporter, “Fredi9999” controls over 20.2 market shares and is currently in the cash.

Feature image from Flickr, chart from TradingView