The US dollar (DX=F, DX-Y.NYB) has been volatile since Donald Trump’s inauguration, retreating from near two-year highs because the president didn’t enact broad-based tariffs on his first day in office.
The move surprised investors as an emergency order would have allowed immediate tariff increases in contrast to the choice means of investigations, which is prone to take longer to finish.
Still, the dollar regained about half of its losses after the president later said tariffs on Mexico and Canada might be imposed by Feb. 1. He also issued a memorandum directing federal agencies to guage US trade policy, which could eventually result in blanket tariffs across quite a lot of trading partners.
Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, told Yahoo Finance’s Morning Transient program that the dollar’s gains and losses signal a recent normal for markets.
“The message is that this just isn’t a one-day event,” he said, noting each upside and downside risks exist. “That is something that is going to stay with us.”
To that time, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas and economist Michael Gapen said in a note on Tuesday that Trump’s back-and-forth rhetoric “reminds us that vigilance is warranted because the US policy path could evolve quickly.” The team maintained its stance that any policy adjustments likely won’t be felt until the back half of the yr.
The greenback’s recent price motion has largely been driven by two fundamental catalysts: Trump’s election and the following Republican sweep, together with the recalibration of future Fed easing within the face of strong economic data.
After hitting a September low, the US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB), which measures the dollar’s value relative to a basket of six foreign currency echange (the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc), has rallied nearly 10%. Because the election, it has climbed by about 5%.