China vehicle export growth to slow in 2025, association data shows

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s vehicle exports are expected to grow 5.8% to six.2 million units this yr, cooling from a 19.3% increase in 2024, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed on Monday.

A slowdown in estimated exports contrasts with a slight uptick forecast for vehicle sales in China this yr, as prolonged policy incentives are expected to bolster sales on the earth’s largest auto market.

The association didn’t give a breakdown of export estimates by engine types, but said exports of electrical vehicles fell 10.4% last yr while plug-in hybrid exports were up 190%.

That compares with an 80.9% rise in EV exports in 2023 at a time when plug-in hybrid exports grew 47.8% and points to the impact of additional tariffs on China-made EVs introduced by the European Union in late October.

China has told its automakers to halt big investment in European countries that support extra tariffs on Chinese-built EVs, Reuters reported in October. Meanwhile, automakers in China are pivoting to hybrid exports for Europe to counter additional EV tariffs.

Vehicle sales in China are forecast to rise 4.7% to 32.9 million units this yr, following a 4.5% rise in 2024, in accordance with CAAM.

The association expects a slowdown in sales growth for brand spanking new energy vehicles (NEVs) that include EVs and plug-in hybrids to 24.4% in 2025 from 35.5% last yr.

An extension of auto trade-in subsidies into 2025 is viewed as one in every of the largest boons for growth, while weak domestic demand, fierce competition and mounting external pressure are poised to have jarring effects on the auto market, CAAM official Xu Haidong said.

Greater than 6.6 million cars sold in China last yr benefited from government subsidies of as much as $2,800 for NEV purchases and as much as $2,000 for more fuel-efficient combustion engine vehicles, official data showed.

(Reporting by Qiaoyi Li and Brenda Goh; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Jamie Freed)

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