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Based on U.S. Census Bureau data, U.S. homebuilders have 266,000 houses under construction and prepared on the market, the second-highest level since records began, trailing only the 2008 housing bubble.
The development surge comes as speculative “spec” homes – built without committed buyers – reached 124,000 units nationwide, up from the shortage levels seen between 2012 and 2022. The last time spec home inventory climbed higher was in 2008, when builders reported 199,000 units.
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“Builders are doing their part to inundate the housing market with supply,” said Nick Gerli, real estate data platform Reventure App CEO.
The development boom centers on southern states, where builders maintain most of their inventory. Texas, Florida and Tennessee report an overflow of obtainable homes on builder lots. Lively listings in those regions have returned to pre-pandemic levels, ending local housing shortages.
Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest proceed facing inventory deficits in comparison with pre-pandemic levels. Builders have largely avoided these regions, concentrating Latest South and Mountain West construction.
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“Homebuilders in these areas permitted plenty of homes in the course of the pandemic boom and proceed to allow homes in late 2024, at the same time as buyer demand has cooled,” Gerli told Newsweek. “Texas, Florida, Arizona, Tennessee and Georgia are probably the most impacted states by the run-up in builder inventory.”
Based on Redfin data, the median home sale price reached $430,010 in November, rising 5.4% from the previous yr. Total homes on the market increased 10.3% year-over-year to 1,689,082 units, while sales volume grew 4.4%.
Reventure forecasts home price declines in Texas and Florida for 2025, with potential price drops concentrated in suburban and rural areas where builders remain most energetic.
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The Senate Budget Committee recently warned about broader market risks. A latest report from the committee points to rising insurance premiums combined with elevated home prices and mortgage rates as potential triggers for market instability.