(Bloomberg) — Gold will rally to a record next yr on central-bank buying and US rate of interest cuts, in response to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which listed the metal amongst top commodity trades for 2025 and said prices could extend gains during Donald Trump’s presidency.
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“Go for gold,” analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note, reiterating a goal of $3,000 an oz. by December 2025. The structural driver of the forecast is higher demand from central banks, while a cyclical lift would come from flows to exchange-traded funds because the Federal Reserve cuts, they said.
Gold has staged a robust rally this yr — hitting successive records — before pulling back within the immediate aftermath of Trump’s White House win, which boosted the dollar. The commodity’s advance has been underpinned by increased official-sector buying, and the Fed’s pivot to easier policy. Goldman said a Trump administration can also aid bullion.
An unprecedented escalation of trade tensions could revive speculative positioning in gold, they said. As well as, rising concerns over US fiscal sustainability can also aid prices, they added, noting that central banks — especially those holding large US Treasury reserves — may opt to purchase more of the dear metal.
Spot gold was last at about $2,589 an oz., having peaked above $2,790 last month.
In other outlooks, Brent crude was seen trading between $70 and $85 a barrel next yr, although there’s near-term upside risk if the Trump administration clamps down on flows from Iran, they said. Base metals were favored over ferrous, and European gas faced upside risks within the short term from the weather, they said.
“The brand new US administration further raises the risks to Iran supply,” the analysts said, citing scope for potentially tighter enforcement of sanctions in a maximum-pressure campaign. “A possible strengthening in US support to Israel can also increase the probability of disruptions to Iran’s oil assets.”
(Adds comment on oil-supply risks in final paragraph)
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