Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin (BTC) looks primed to create a recent all-time high (ATH), charged by positive Q4 2024 seasonality.

Bitcoin Recent ATH On The Horizon?

On October 28, BTC surged past $71,000, sparking optimism for a recent ATH above the $73,737 peak recorded in March this 12 months. Although BTC has crossed the $70,000 threshold multiple times since then, it has yet to set a recent ATH.

In line with a recent report from the cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex, Bitcoin could possibly be on the right track for a recent ATH shortly after the US presidential election. Bitcoin is usually seen as a “Trump trade,” exhibiting a powerful correlation with Donald Trump’s election odds.

For instance, after a 6% decline last week, BTC has regained all losses, coinciding with Trump’s rising election odds on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform. 

On the time of writing, Trump leads with a 66.1% likelihood of winning versus Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who stands at 33.9%. Nonetheless, opinion polls show a detailed race, making the election end result uncertain.

A possible Trump victory is stirring the choices market. In line with the report, while short-term volatility may increase closer to election results, BTC’s long-term bullish outlook stays intact. It states:

Options expiring on key dates across the election are commanding higher premiums, with implied volatility expected to peak at 100 every day vol on November eighth, just after Election Day – indicating that the market is bracing for potential turbulence. Whatever the election end result, short-term volatility is anticipated to be higher than usual though we remain confident in longer-term price appreciation.

It’s price highlighting that BTC dipped as little as $52,756 in September. Nonetheless, the premier digital asset rallied almost 30% in October, inspiring some confidence within the “Uptober” narrative.

Seasonality Is On Bitcoin’s Side

The report emphasizes that BTC is positioned to profit from “favorable Q4 seasonality.” Historically, Q4 has been profitable for BTC during halving years, giving a median quarterly return of 31.34%. 

The buildup in call options expiring December 27 – especially on the $80,000 strike price – also bolsters BTC’s Q4 2024 bullish outlook. The report adds:

As options open interest climbs to recent highs, the market is showing signs of positioning for a post-election surge, potentially propelling Bitcoin towards—and beyond—its all-time high of $73,666.

In similar news earlier this month, crypto research firm K33 Research remarked that the newest positive developments within the FTX fiasco propel Bitcoin’s bullish Q4 narrative.

BTC trades at $71,110 at press time, up 3.1% previously 24 hours and about 3.5% away from its current ATH. Whether BTC will proceed its upward trend through the remainder of the quarter or face one other rejection stays to be seen.