In a story throughout the decentralized prediction market sphere, a researcher has accused a crypto bettor, operating under the pseudonym ‘Fredi9999’ or just ‘Fredi,’ of significantly manipulating the chances for former President Donald Trump on the crypto platform Polymarket. Over the past fortnight, Trump’s probability of winning has surged from near parity with Vice President Kamala Harris to a considerable 60.7%, while Harris’s odds have dwindled to 39.3%.

The allegations were delivered to light by Domer (@Domahhhh), a pseudonymous political crypto bettor, who detailed his findings in an in depth thread on X. Domer stated: “A protracted-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 — the person or entity — who’s singlehandedly rocketing up the worth of Trump on prediction markets around the globe. Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I feel, and he blocked me after a number of minutes. Sensitive guy! We’ll get back to that.”

Is Crypto Plattform Polymarket Manipulated?

Domer elaborated on the mechanics of the alleged manipulation, highlighting that Fredi has been placing substantial bets exclusively on Trump, reportedly exceeding $25 million. This influx of capital has introduced a premium of roughly 5% to eight% on Trump’s odds, making bets on Trump dearer while concurrently reducing the associated fee of betting on Harris by an analogous margin. In accordance with Domer, this strategy disrupts the availability and demand equilibrium on Polymarket, resulting in skewed pricing that doesn’t accurately reflect the broader market sentiment.

Further evaluation by Domer revealed that Fredi9999 will not be confined to a single account. As a substitute, multiple accounts—PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo—are believed to be controlled by the identical entity, collectively holding positions value around $28 million. The synchronization of enormous deposits from crypto exchange Kraken, typically in increments of $500,000 or $1 million, into these accounts before deploying funds solely on Trump-related markets suggests a coordinated effort to influence market outcomes.

Supporting this claim, @fozzydiablo, one other researcher, identified patterns across the 4 accounts that imply a single user’s control. Domer referenced @fozzydiablo’s findings, linking to an in depth evaluation.

Data suggests a single entity has been purchasing all Trump related bets on @Polymarket totaling $26 million.

– Fredi9999
– PrincessCaro
– Michie
– Theo4

Taking a take a look at their betting activity we are able to analyze when the accounts are placing bets.
What’s most interesting is when… pic.twitter.com/2eSv2AKRhW

— Fozzy (@fozzydiablo) October 16, 2024

Domer also speculated on the possible identity and motivations behind Fredi’s actions. Observations regarding the linguistic patterns in comments made by Fredi and associated accounts—akin to the usage of each British and American English spellings and peculiar spacing around punctuation—hint at a possible French origin. Domer posited: “AI thinks the writing/spelling/weird misspellings points to a Frenchman who has learned British English and frolicked in America.”

Nonetheless, Domer acknowledged the potential of ulterior motives, including the scenario where Fredi may be part of a bigger scheme and even an elaborate role-playing act designed to obscure true intentions. The researcher emphasized the unprecedented nature of a $25 million all-in bet on a single candidate, highlighting the need for further investigation to uncover underlying motives.

Domer wrote: “Possibly it’s all a LARP and any person is just having fun pretending with all of this, trying to appear unsophisticated on purpose. Possibly it’s connected to Elon [Musk] or another huge GOP megadonor. I do not know, and it’s a little bit of a game to determine what is happening here. Possibly it’s actually [famous crypto trader] GCR despite GCR saying it’s not him. GCR’s guess is it’s someone attempting to send Bitcoin skyrocketing, which is a great explanation.”

This revelation comes amid criticism from Hasu, a strategic advisor to crypto project Lido Finance and strategy lead at Flashbots. He remarked via X: “Polymarket is sweet, yes, but I feel prefer it’s time to call them out on their bullshit of putting ‘volume’ front and center, while aggressively hiding open interest in all places on their website. […] This market will not be deep on traditional scale yet, especially given the magnitude of the event. Its misleading reporting and giant shadow thrown by the media just makes it seem that way. And that is assuming there may be 0 fake volume on Polymarket.”

Historically, significant individual bets have occasionally influenced prediction markets. Domer referenced past instances from the 2008 and 2012 US presidential elections, where single large bettors attempted to sway market odds for John McCain and Mitt Romney, respectively. Each instances ultimately didn’t alter the election outcomes, resulting in skepticism in regards to the efficacy and impact of such large-scale bets.

Domer concluded his evaluation by questioning the broader implications of Fredi’s actions: “Why do I care about this? Good query! It’s vital to know who you’re betting against. Is that this a brilliant smart trading firm and I needs to be scared? Is that this an idiot betting on what he desires to occur and I needs to be glad? Is that this only a lame attempt to present the impression that Trump is winning by lots with 0 other motives? It’s hard to determine what is happening here.”

At press time, BTC traded at $67,646.

Featured image from Reuters, chart from TradingView.com