Major hurricane Milton continues to bear down on Florida and in recent updates from the National Hurricane Centre warning areas for the Florida Peninsula have been expanded, with an expectation the storm could sustain hurricane wind speeds all the way in which because it crosses the state from west to east.

The newest National Hurricane Centre (NHC) update puts major hurricane Milton still at Category 4, with sustained wind speeds of 150 mph and a minimum central pressure of 929 mb.

While hurricane Milton underwent an eyewall alternative cycle because it brushed past Mexico’s Yucatan, this has weakened the storm somewhat but at the identical time the wind field has begun its expected expansion.

Now, with 24 hours or so left for Milton to maneuver across very warm Gulf of Mexico waters because it approaches Florida’s west coast, the storm is forecast to keep up its major hurricane status and grow in size, while meteorologist expect this process will drive higher storm surge heights when it reaches landfall.

The forecast models remain converged on an eventual landfall across the Tampa Bay region and sources proceed to talk of the potential for $50 billion plus insurance market losses, with some suggesting much higher if a worst case scenario ensues.

The newest forecast cone and wind speed indications will be seen within the map below from Tomer Burg:

What could that worst case scenario be, most sources suggest a landfall barely north of Tampa Bay or direct on it, followed by a track along the i4 transport corridor taking hurricane Milton near cities reminiscent of Orlando.

Note within the image above, 100 mph sustained winds are shown for the center of the Florida Peninsula, within the region of Orlando.

Hurricane Milton is anticipated to maneuver relatively quickly inland and forecasts are suggesting it could remain a hurricane on the time it nears regions reminiscent of Orlando and maybe beyond to areas of exposure concentration reminiscent of Daytona Beach.

With Milton moving towards Florida on a north-easterly trajectory, the landfall location and eventual path across Florida look to be critical to the eventual insurance, reinsurance and maybe catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market loss.

Indicating that impacts are set to spread far inland from hurricane Milton, the NHC’s latest warnings have prolonged hurricane warnings right across the Florida Peninsula, including across all of the locations aforementioned.

You’ll be able to see the newest warning map from the NHC below:

It’s vital to notice that lots can still occur within the just over 24 hours prior to hurricane Milton’s landfall in Florida.

With a trough to the north, Milton’s path could adjust and a landfall to the south of Tampa Bay could reduce the eventual industry loss, although our sources still suggest that will likely be within the region of $20 billion or more, perhaps higher if a high-exposure landfall location is the eventual scenario that ensues.

Slight adjustments to the trail Milton takes could have meaningful influence on the quantum of insurance market losses, which is why projections remain in a really big selection right now.

Desirous about the catastrophe bond market, we understand quite a few Florida sponsored names are coming into focus as potentially the more at-risk from hurricane Milton.

On the mid to upper-end of loss projections, cat bonds sponsored by Florida’s Residents Property Insurance Corporation may be under some threat.

Lower layer collateralized reinsurance is doubtless exposed to the mid to higher end loss projections being seen, as could be anticipated, while some retrocession arrangements are also undoubtedly exposed to those scenarios.

Reinsurance sidecars focused on property catastrophe risks with US exposure are also more likely to see attrition no less than, with any loss quantum into the tens of billions of dollars.

But, it should be stated again, there stays uncertainty right now and the range of loss projections flowing across the market are still from double-digit billions to almost the triple-digit levels.

Hurricane Milton could seemingly are available anywhere between right now. But, by the point the storm gets much closer to Florida’s Peninsula and we have now a greater idea of its size and intensity, so the potential for storm surge and damaging winds, in addition to their extent, we should always even have a greater idea of the landfall location and path Milton will take, so projections will turn into more accurate at the moment, likely across the middle of Tuesday.

In its latest update at 10am CDT, 3pm UTC, the NHC said, “Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with a rise in forward speed is anticipated to start later today and proceed through Thursday. On the forecast track, the middle of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. The middle is more likely to make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across central Florida through Thursday.

“Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to stay an especially dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

“Hurricane-force winds extend outward as much as 30 miles (45 km) from the middle and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward as much as 105 miles (165 km).”

It would be interesting to see how that size of the storm has modified by tomorrow, as that too will give a clearer idea of the eventual impacts.

Finally, storm surge height indications remain significant, with no change as yet and still as much as 15 feet projected for among the most exposed areas of high-value coastline. Again, it’s going to be interesting to see if these heights rise, should hurricane Milton expand significantly in size while sustaining its intensity.

You’ll be able to track this and each Atlantic hurricane season development using the tracking map and data on our dedicated page.

Also read:

– Mexico’s catastrophe bond presumed secure from hurricane Milton.

– Stone Ridge leads managers cutting mutual cat bond or ILS fund NAVs on hurricane Milton.

– Hurricane Milton might be an enormous test for the whole (re)insurance market: Evercore ISI.

– Hurricane Milton losses could amount to tens of billions, but uncertainty high: BMS’ Siffert.

– As hurricane Milton intensifies, Mexico’s catastrophe bond comes into focus.

– Material hurricane Milton losses could change 2025 property reinsurance price trajectory: KBW.

– Cat bond & ILS managers explore options to free money, as hurricane Milton approaches.

– Hurricane Milton: First Tampa Bay storm surge indications 8 to 12 feet.

– Hurricane Milton is biggest potential ILS market threat since Ian in 2022: Steiger, Icosa.

– Hurricane Milton forecast for costly Florida landfall. Cat bond & ILS market on watch.