Kamala Harris’ Odds of Winning Democratic Nomination Surge on Polymarket

Vice chairman Kamala Harris’ odds of becoming the Democratic nominee for president this yr greater than quadrupled on Tuesday, in response to traders on Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market platform that is seen torrid growth in an election yr.

“Yes” shares in a contract asking whether she’s going to get the nod traded as high as 31 cents within the afternoon Latest York time, indicating the market saw a 31% likelihood it is going to occur, up from 7% earlier within the day. The shares retraced some gains and recently traded at 23 cents.

Each share pays out $1 (in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency pegged to the U.S. dollar) if the prediction comes true, and nil if not.

Officially, President Joe Biden continues to be the presumptive Democratic nominee. But many supporters are calling on him to step aside, and a few of them want Harris to step up following her boss’s doddering performance eventually week’s debate with former commander-in-chief and almost-certain Republican standard-bearer Donald J. Trump.

“We must always do all the pieces we are able to to bolster her, whether it’s in second place or the highest of the ticket,” Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C, said on television Tuesday.

A Newsweek op-ed by former Congressman Tim Ryan, the primary presidential candidate to endorse Biden in 2020, was more blunt: “Kamala Harris Should Be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024.” An evaluation by The Wall Street Journal called Harris “Biden’s Likeliest Alternative.”

The trend was similar Tuesday on PredictIt, a more traditional prediction market platform where bets are settled in dollars moderately than crypto. “Yes” shares for Harris there greater than doubled to 35 cents. PredictIt’s volume on the query of who will win the Democratic nomination totals $31 million, dwarfed by Polymarket at $75 million.

Under a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket is barred from doing business within the U.S., whereas PredictIt is allowed to operate within the country under a regulatory exemption.

Tuesday was Polymarket’s fifth-largest volume day in its four-year history, with $5.7 million in trading, in response to Dune Analytics data. June was the primary month Polymarket saw greater than $100 million in volume.

Its largest contract by far, with $211 million in bets, asks who will win the U.S. presidency in November. Trump stays the favourite, with a 66% likelihood of victory.

Meanwhile, KAMA, a meme coin named after the vice chairman, rallied Tuesday, greater than doubling in price over 24 hours to $0.007815.

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