An analyst has explained when Bitcoin could grow large enough to rival even the US Dollar (USD) based on its historical adoption curve.
Bitcoin Needs To Grow Its Adoption This Much To Challenge The USD
In a latest post on X, analyst Willy Woo has discussed what the expectation around the unique cryptocurrency has been increase to in financial circles recently.
“The financial world now believes Bitcoin is a quick emerging asset class,” says Woo. At present, though, the coin only has a complete market cap of around $1.2 trillion, while the analyst notes that asset classes are generally valued in “units of tens of trillion.”
Woo thinks that this expectation around BTC means the financial world believes three things: BTC would grow at the least ten times from here (to breach the $10 trillion market cap mark), rival the USD in size, and turn into a reserve asset.
But when will these expectations come to fruition? To make an estimation, the analyst refers to cryptocurrency’s “adoption” curve. Below is the chart shared by Woo that compares BTC’s adoption against that of the web.
Looks like BTC has seen adoption from 4.7% of the world's population to this point | Source: @woonomic on X
The values on the adoption curve here correlate to the share of the worldwide population using the asset without delay. Woo has put together all known studies on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency adoption to find out the curve.
A few the distinguished ones include Glassnode’s clustering of addresses into “entities” (with each entity representing an investor who controls some variety of addresses) and Cambridge’s data on verified exchange users.
From the chart, it’s visible that Bitcoin’s user count is comparable to around 4.7% of the world population without delay, as per the estimation made by the analyst’s model.
If the s-curve of the web is to go by, BTC could still be early in its reach. Assuming that is the case, the coin’s user count would show some acceleration from here.
Now, how much adoption does the cryptocurrency have to rival the USD? Woo believes this could occur when the curve enters the 25% to 40% territory, which could potentially be within the 2030s.
It stays to be seen how the adoption curve of Bitcoin will develop in the approaching years and whether it’ll look anything like what has been seen with the web.
BTC Price
Bitcoin kicked off this week with a plunge under the $59,000 level, however the asset has since recovered as its price is now trading above $61,400. Nonetheless, it’s unclear in the mean time whether this retrace will last or if the bearish momentum will return soon.
The worth of the coin seems to have gone down a net amount in the previous few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, woocharts.com, chart from TradingView.com