I’m seeing a textbook trend setup on the 4-hour timeframe of USD/CHF.

Will we see one other channel bounce this time?

Or is a reversal within the cards?

USD/CHF 4-hour Forex Chart by TradingView

ICYMI the May FOMC statement spurred quite a drop for the U.S. dollar, despite the fact that they kept rates unchanged as expected.

Because it turned out, dollar bulls seemed disillusioned concerning the lack of hawkish rhetoric, as Fed head Powell reiterated that their next move remains to be more likely to be a rate cut. Besides, policymakers also agreed to decelerate the pace of reduction of bond holdings from their balance sheet, which was viewed as a type of easing.

Do not forget that directional biases and volatility conditions in market price are typically driven by fundamentals. If you happen to haven’t yet done your fundie homework on the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc, then it’s time to examine out the economic calendar and stay updated on day by day fundamental news!

USD/CHF retreated from its channel resistance upon hearing the announcement, pulling back to the mid-channel area of interest on the 50% Fib and R1 (.9170).

Support appears to be holding to this point, but a deeper correction might still reach the 61.8% level closer to the .9150 minor psychological mark or the channel support near the pivot point level (.9130).

If any of those hold as a floor, look out for a sustained bullish move back to the swing high or the channel resistance around R2 (.9240). In spite of everything, the 100 SMA remains to be above the 200 SMA to suggest that the uptrend is more more likely to gain traction than to reverse.

Just be sure to maintain a watch out for the Swiss CPI and retail sales release when trading this one. Good luck!