Tesla Stock: EV Giant Could Be Less Profitable As Delivery Slump Sinks In - FinaPress

Tesla (TSLA) stock was handed two price goal revisions Wednesday as analysts project 2024 vehicle deliveries could undercut last 12 months’s total with profit forecasts continuing to fall ahead of first-quarter earnings.

Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois lowered his Tesla stock price goal to 165 from 185 Wednesday while Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter cut the firm’s price goal to 205 from 225.

Houchois expects Tesla will deliver 1.77 million vehicles in 2024, below the 2023 record of 1.81 million. The analyst also reduced his 2024 EBIT and EPS estimates by around 30% to $6.5 billion and $1.87, respectively. With Tesla reporting first-quarter earnings on April 23, Houchois wrote the situation continues loading “more drama into Q1 results,” including questions on product priorities and leadership.

Jefferies also expects Q1 money burn must be “heavily negative.” Pipe Sandler sees full-year deliveries slipping to 1.79 million.

On Tuesday, Baird analyst Ben Kallo estimated 2024 deliveries will total 1.84 million, writing that second-quarter deliveries are liable to decline as compared with last 12 months.

The consensus view is 1.94 million deliveries, in response to FactSet. Nonetheless, that number is liable to be adjusted following Tesla’s worse-than-expected Q1 delivery result.

Meanwhile, Tesla vehicle insurance registrations for the week of April 1-7 totaled 1,880, in response to CnEVPost. That’s down around 40% as compared with last quarter and a 70% decline to the similar period in 2023.

“There is no such thing as a such thing as a denying that the demand environment has deteriorated,” Kallo wrote.

Tesla stock fell 2.5% to 172.43 during market motion Wednesday. On Tuesday, TSLA shares gained greater than 2% to 176.88. The stock is up 7.3% so far this week.

Tesla EPS Estimates Keep Falling

The recent analyst notes come as Wall Street consensus has 2024 Tesla earnings firmly below 2023’s level. That signals one other 12 months of earnings declines for this growth stock. Wall Street currently expects Tesla earnings per share of just $2.71 in 2024, in response to FactSet. That shall be greater than a 13% decline vs. last 12 months’s $3.12.

Wall Street’s 2024 EPS consensus estimates for Tesla have now come down 29% for the explanation that end of 2023. With Tesla reporting earnings on April 23, Wall Street might be going just beginning to chop earnings predictions. Some analysts consider earnings could drop even further, potentially around 2021 EPS of $2.26.

Looking further out, Wall Street consensus has Tesla’s EPS in 2025 coming in at $3.72, down from $5.29 at the highest of 2023, in response to FactSet.

Tesla And The Robotaxi

Reuters reported Friday the EV giant has canceled its long promised next-generation $25,000 vehicle, choosing to consider developing its self-driving robotaxi platform.

Reuters, citing three anonymous sources and internal messages, wrote that Tesla not plans to make its low-cost entry-level vehicle, the Model 2, and might proceed developing its robotaxi on the “same small-vehicle platform.”

Nonetheless, Chief Executive Elon Musk and others at Tesla have challenged the veracity of the report.

Following the publication of the Reuters story, Musk also announced Tesla will unveil the robotaxi on Aug. 8.

On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, a Tesla bull, wrote that canceling or delaying the Model 2, could possibly be a “recognition that making and selling EVs in an ordinary consumer model may not create lasting economic value.”

Jonas added that while the firm is prepared for Tesla to unveil a robotaxi-prototype in August, it’s cautious on “potential commercialization timelines for a very autonomous taxi service.”

Morgan Stanley expects Tesla 2024 EPS to sink to $1.12.

Tesla Stock Performance

Last week, Tesla stock sank 6.2%, including a 3.6% dip Friday, to 164.90. Cathie Wood purchased nearly 453,000 shares of Tesla throughout the week, in response to the every day trade disclosures. TSLA shares are trading below the 50-day moving average after falling around 13% in March.

The prior week, Tesla gained 2.9% to 175.79 since the EV company began rolling out its latest full self-driving update to customers.

Emails sent by Elon Musk leaked on social media platforms show he’s making it mandatory in North America to place in and activate the most recent version of FSD on vehicles and to take customers on a “short test ride before handing over the auto.”

Tesla will also be offering a one-month free trial of FSD for April throughout the U.S. for brand spanking recent purchases or existing EVs which may be FSD capable.

Tesla Stock Has Plunged In 2024, But At Least It’s Cheaper, Right? Nope

The EV giant ranks eighth throughout the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 32 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Tesla stock also has an 11 Relative Strength Rating and a 67 EPS Rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X, formerly known as Twitter, @KitNorton for more coverage.