We will all pretend to be improbable until the ground collapses beneath us. At that time, complacency / denial gives method to panic, however it’s too late to effect any realistic reversal of fortune.
Doom Loops have been within the lexicon an extended time. The fundamental idea is the decline of one among the inputs holding up the established order weakens the opposite inputs. This weakness feeds back on itself, accelerating the decline until a critical support level breaks and the system collapses.
Doom Loops are getting used to explain big-city downtowns gutted by distant work, the closure of small businesses and the rise of property crime and chronic homelessness. Once the workforce commuting to downtown fell sharply, the companies catering to this workforce now not had a customer base large enough to support all of them and so many close.
This mass closure makes the district less vibrant, further weakening commerce.
At the identical time, politicians and district attorneys have mandated non-prosecution of non-violent property crimes corresponding to auto break-ins, shoplifting, etc., giving the green light to the criminal class that makes a speciality of property crimes. This increase in property crime forces the closure of flagship stores stripmined by blatant shoplifting.
This shift in enforcement did little to stem the flood of fentanyl and other addictive narcotics into city centers, where the chronic homeless have congregated in sprawling encampments.
While mayors promote declines in violent crimes, they don’t mention the impact of human waste, drug-addled homeless and property crimes, lots of which aren’t even reported as small business owners fear reporting losses attributable to break-ins might end in their insurance policies being cancelled.
The closures of downtown businesses cause tax revenues to plummet, leaving less for policing and other essential services. Criminals quickly catch on and so break-ins occur when police patrols are absent.
Meanwhile, the decline in commuters has crushed transit agencies’ revenues, creating giant holes in billion-dollar budgets with few realistic solutions.
The answer being touted is to convert empty office buildings into residences, to switch commuting office staff with residents. This sounds feasible within the abstract, but these conversions are extremely costly, and the attractiveness of decaying downtowns to upscale residents is a matter few entertain, for the reply is painfully obvious: who desires to live in a neighborhood of human waste, degradation, rampant property crimes and medicines, all of which have rendered local businesses unviable?
You possibly can be certain the politicians and DAs whose policies exacerbated the decay won’t live downtown. Just like the individuals who elected them, they live in wealthy enclaves which are thus far shielded from the implications of doom loops.
Once the downtown has been stripped of targets, do you reckon the criminals who concentrate on property crimes will retire? Or will they move into the enclaves where the protected class lives?
One other doom loop is gutting rural villages and towns globally. You’ve probably seen media reports of homes in Italian or Japanese villages that will be had for $1 or some nominal sum, for instance: Why Japan is Giving Away 8 Million Free Houses (13 min) (via J.F.). Note: the 8-million number is click-bait.
Not noted of those chirpy accounts of $1 houses in charming villages are all of the realities that generated the doom loop that hollowed out the villages in the primary place: their remoteness, absence of jobs, the dominance of an aging populace of pensioners, decaying, outdated housing requiring costly renovations, the depreciating value of such properties, and so forth.
Once the post office closes attributable to a decline within the populace and the elementary school closes attributable to a decline in enrollment, the village is doomed. Families with children move away, further reducing the populace, pushing it below the thresholds needed to support a neighborhood temple/church priest, a neighborhood cafe, etc.
Doom Loops are difficult to reverse. The present zeitgeist, which seems to only have two poles, complacency / denial and panic, will not be conducive to practical, realistic appraisals or plans of motion, all of which require painful sacrifices and reductions in unsustainable spending to align with reduced revenues and prospects.
This zeitgeist encourages “positive optics” and pleased stories disconnected from the realities of the doom loops already in play. Yes, we will all pretend to be improbable until the ground collapses beneath us. At that time, complacency / denial gives method to panic, however it’s too late to effect any realistic reversal of fortune.
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