Dow Jones Futures Fall After S&P 500 Hits Resistance; JPMorgan, UnitedHealth Earnings On Tap

Dow Jones futures fell barely overnight, together with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Big earnings from JPMorgan, Bank of America, UnitedHealth, Delta Air Lines and more are on tap Friday morning.




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The stock market rally gained some more ground on Thursday, though the S&P 500 hit resistance at a critical area.

The much-anticipated CPI inflation report showed cooling price pressures largely consistent with expectations, though service price gains were a mixed picture. Still, the slowing inflation trend should proceed for several months, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon end rate hikes.

Investors must be seeking to add exposure, fastidiously. This market is susceptible to pullbacks, and could possibly be due for one. Meanwhile, many leading stocks are actually prolonged from at the least early buy points. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Celsius Holdings (CELH) are still actionable.

XOM stock and Celsius are on the IBD 50. CELH stock is on SwingTrader and on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist.

Key Earnings

JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) all report Friday morning. UnitedHealth (UNH) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) kick off earnings for his or her respective groups.

JPMorgan stock is in a buy zone after a standard breakout. Bank of America and Citigroup stock are near early entries in bottoming bases. WFC stock has more work to do. UNH stock has sold off in 2023 together with other health insurers, though it rose Thursday. DAL stock has spiked in 2023 with the airline group, adding to gains on bullish preliminary revenue from American Airlines (AAL). But Delta is well prolonged from early entries and is working up the correct side of a protracted, deep base.

JPM stock and UnitedHealth are each Dow Jones components.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures fell 0.1% vs. fair value, with S&P 500 futures declined 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%.

The ten-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to three.47%.

Keep in mind that overnight motion in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the following regular stock market session.


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Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally wavered Thursday, with volatile premarket swings continuing into the morning. But because the session wore on, the key indexes calmed down and moved higher before fading somewhat within the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.6% in Thursday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index climbed 0.3%. The Nasdaq composite rose 0.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 1.7%.

U.S. crude oil prices rose 1.3% to $78.39 a barrel, climbing 7.6% over the past six sessions.

Copper climbed 0.8% on Thursday, surging 11.9% over the past six trading days.

The ten-year Treasury yield tumbled 11 basis points to three.45%, near recent lows. The 2-year Treasury yield, more closely tied to Fed policy, hit a three-month low. Markets have almost fully priced in a quarter-point rate hike on Feb. 1, which can be a step down from 50 basis points and 75 basis points within the prior two meetings. Investors also strongly expect one other quarter-point hike in March, to a 4.75%-5% range. Without delay, markets are betting that is the tip.


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ETFs

Amongst growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) and Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) rose 0.7%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) climbed 0.8%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 1.5%.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) jumped 2% and the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) rose 0.8%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) soared 4.6%, with DAL stock and American Air each key holdings. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) edged up 0.3%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) advanced 1.9%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) nudged 0.2% higher, with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and BAC stock all major components. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) dipped 0.3%, with UNH stock a significant holding.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) popped 2.1% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) 3.45%.


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Market Rally Evaluation

After wavering within the morning, the key indexes ultimately climbed modestly, while small caps jumped.

The S&P 500 got here right as much as its 200-day moving average, closing just under that key level. The Nasdaq held support at its 50-day line and moved slightly higher from that area.

The Dow Jones and Russell 2000, above all their moving averages, are working toward their December highs.

Overall, the market rally has made huge strides over the past five sessions. Investors see the sunshine at the tip of the tunnel for Fed rate hikes.

Still, the key indexes face further tests. The S&P 500 must decisively clear the 200-day line, where it’s hit resistance multiple times. The December highs are the final word test for the indexes. But after running up for several sessions, with the key indexes right around key levels, a pause or pullback would not be a surprise.

Leading stocks are showing higher motion, but many are actually prolonged, at the least from early entries or moving averages.

Exxon Mobil stock rose 1.7% to 113.22, just under a 114.76 flat-base buy point, based on MarketSmith evaluation. But XOM stock is in range from the 50-day line. Celsius stock dipped 0.2% to 106.40, but found support on the 21-day line. CELH stock continues to be actionable from Wednesday’s jump, rebounding from the 50-day line and breaking a brief trendline.

In a positive sign for the broader market rally, the chip sector has regained momentum, with the SMF ETF moving decisively above its 200-day line this week. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the most important holding in SMH, gapped above its 200-day line on earnings. That is despite revenue falling short and TSMC also guiding low on Q1. But not many chip names, even those which are clear market leaders, are actionable straight away.


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What To Do Now

The stock market rally has had a powerful stretch, moving above some key resistance areas and with the CPI inflation report out of the way in which.

Investors will be adding exposure, steadily, if conditions proceed to enhance. The main indexes, sectors and leading stocks have had an inclination to stage big pullbacks just as they appear to be gaining steam. And the market rally is gaining momentum.

Earnings season could upend the market rally, or slam specific sectors or stocks.

Investors who largely stayed on the sidelines in recent days may feel like big opportunities have passed them by. It’s true that some stocks could also be out of reach straight away. But don’t chase prolonged names. Wait to see in the event that they pause or pull back or arrange recent bases. Meanwhile, other stocks will come to the fore.

If this market rally has real legs, that there’ll loads of probabilities. If it quickly stalls out again, then you definitely’ll be glad you are not heavily invested.

But it surely’s crucial to have your watchlists up to this point. Solid a large net to seek out stocks which are organising across different sectors. Then concentrate on stocks which are “ready” or nearly so.

Read The Big Picture day by day to remain in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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